Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:29:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C1 0xc1b9…9a45 crypto 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$112 (+1%) realized +$112 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate83%123W / 25L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$73
crypto 12% +$21
other 3% +$7
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 4 +4.5% -5.4% 100% 25% -6.9%
≤90d 15 -6.1% -15.1% 87% 7% -9.7%
all 148 +10.4% -0.1% 83% 20% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 20% -9.2%
10% -9.7% 14% -17.9%
15% -18.4% 9% -25.8%
20% -26.4% 8% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$15 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses123 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)148 / 148
History coverage129d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 148 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $295 +$5 +2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $296 +$2 +1%
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 08 $100 +$1 +1%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Hurricanes vs. Flyers Jun 08 $100 +$15 +14%
Kings vs. Kraken Apr 14 $277 +$4 +1%
Flyers vs. Jets Apr 12 $275 +$2 +1%
Oilers vs. Kings Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bulls vs. Spurs Apr 10 $274 +$2 +1%
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets Mar 29 $297 −$45 -15%
Panthers vs. Islanders Mar 28 $299 +$1 +0%
Red Wings vs. Sabres Mar 28 $317 +$2 +0%
Kings vs. Canucks Mar 27 $313 +$3 +1%
Blackhawks vs. Flyers Mar 27 $313 $0 +0%
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Mar 26 $313 $0 +0%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 26 $312 +$1 +0%
Avalanche vs. Penguins Mar 25 $309 +$3 +1%
Thunder vs. 76ers Mar 24 $308 +$1 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Mar 22 $306 +$2 +1%
Hurricanes vs. Penguins Mar 22 $303 +$3 +1%
Maple Leafs vs. Senators Mar 22 $300 +$3 +1%
Golden Knights vs. Predators Mar 21 $298 +$2 +1%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $2 $0 +23%
Avalanche vs. Blackhawks Mar 21 $297 +$1 +0%
Lightning vs. Canucks Mar 20 $291 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 20 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 20 $2 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 20 $126 +$25 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 20 $110 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 20 $30 $0 +1%
VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Mar 20 $32 −$28 -86%
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Mar 19 $100 +$1 +1%
McNeese State Cowboys vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Mar 19 $3 $0 +10%
South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals Mar 19 $5 +$1 +17%
Trail Blazers vs. Pacers Mar 19 $316 $0 +0%
Warriors vs. Celtics Mar 19 $306 +$10 +3%
Lightning vs. Kraken Mar 18 $298 +$8 +3%
Islanders vs. Maple Leafs Mar 18 $281 +$17 +6%
Flames vs. Red Wings Mar 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $295 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $298 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 99¢ $296 4h
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? SELL Yes 91¢ $102 14d
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Hurricanes vs. Flyers BUY Canes 87¢ $100 49d
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 49d
Kings vs. Kraken SELL Kings 100¢ $280 69d
Kings vs. Kraken BUY Kings 99¢ $277 69d
Flyers vs. Jets SELL Flyers 100¢ $277 71d
Flyers vs. Jets BUY Flyers 99¢ $43 72d
Flyers vs. Jets BUY Flyers 99¢ $232 72d
Oilers vs. Kings BUY Oilers 8¢ $1 72d
Bulls vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 99¢ $274 84d
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets SELL Blue Jackets 84¢ $252 85d
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 99¢ $297 85d
Panthers vs. Islanders SELL Islanders 100¢ $300 86d
Panthers vs. Islanders BUY Islanders 100¢ $299 86d
Red Wings vs. Sabres BUY Red Wings 99¢ $317 87d
Kings vs. Canucks BUY Kings 99¢ $313 87d
Blackhawks vs. Flyers SELL Flyers 100¢ $313 87d
Blackhawks vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 100¢ $313 88d
Mavericks vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 100¢ $313 88d
Lakers vs. Pacers SELL Lakers 100¢ $313 89d
Lakers vs. Pacers BUY Lakers 99¢ $312 89d
Avalanche vs. Penguins SELL Avalanche 100¢ $312 90d
Avalanche vs. Penguins BUY Avalanche 99¢ $309 90d
Thunder vs. 76ers SELL Thunder 100¢ $308 91d
Thunder vs. 76ers SELL Thunder 100¢ $1 91d
Thunder vs. 76ers BUY Thunder 100¢ $308 91d
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets SELL Nuggets 100¢ $2 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 430 history records