Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:59:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C1 0xc1be…0921 crypto 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$318 (+88%) realized +$321 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate40%20W / 30L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days+$345
30 days+$345
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$45
sports 46% +$355
weather 6% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -15.0% -23.1% 44% 33% -19.4%
≤30d 22 +20.8% +9.3% 45% 36% +153.2%
≤90d 50 -14.7% -22.9% 40% 32% +82.2%
all 50 -14.7% -22.9% 40% 32% +82.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 32% +82.2%
10% -30.2% 26% +64.8%
15% -37.0% 24% +48.9%
20% -43.2% 14% +34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +101% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +101% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$3 · ×6.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.26 per $1 lost it wins $4.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$321
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses20 / 30
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage43d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 33¢ 30¢ $36 $32 −$3 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$11 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $38 +$270 +711%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -19%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $49 +$56 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $22 +$43 +197%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 19 $3 −$3 -96%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 19 $6 −$3 -48%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 18 $6 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 18 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 18 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 18 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 18 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 18 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 18 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 18 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 18 $1 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 18 $1 $0 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 18 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 07 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 07 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 07 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 07 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 07 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 07 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 07 $5 +$3 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 33¢ $36 14m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 98¢ $11 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 100¢ $307 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 12¢ $38 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 100¢ $105 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $49 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $8 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $8 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.48 · official $32.48 (match) · 100 history records