Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:52:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C1 0xc1be…6471 sports 1250 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,528 (-5%) realized −$5,525 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%627W / 619L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day43.0pace
Fees−$1,273est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$266now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$129
7 days−$229
14 days−$3,154
30 days−$6,051
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$4,249
crypto 11% −$397
other 10% −$1,235
world 2% +$103
politics 1% +$10
weather 0% −$134
economics 0% −$1
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -23.5% -30.8% 35% 30% -25.7%
≤30d 469 -21.2% -28.7% 38% 35% -19.8%
≤90d 1246 -5.6% -14.6% 50% 42% -14.0%
all 1246 -5.6% -14.6% 50% 42% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 42% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 37% -22.3%
15% -30.2% 31% -29.8%
20% -37.0% 25% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -0% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$46 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$266
Realized−$5,525
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses627 / 619
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$1,273
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1246 / 1250
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$94
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 52¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner OG 62¢ 56¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$19 +194%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $101 +$13 +13%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $51 −$8 -16%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Federico Valverde: 3+ shots Jun 22 $51 +$34 +67%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 +$91 +89%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $56 −$3 -4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $51 −$32 -63%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $51 +$6 +11%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$28 -54%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $51 −$24 -47%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $51 −$9 -18%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $51 +$40 +79%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $51 −$26 -52%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 −$5 -5%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $101 +$6 +6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$37 -37%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$10 +50%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $56 −$55 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $56 −$55 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $663 −$654 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $31 −$3 -10%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $702 −$25 -4%
Ermedin Demirović: 1+ goals Jun 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Ermedin Demirović: 2+ goals Jun 12 $0 $0 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $618 +$67 +11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$54 -53%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3,026 −$1,764 -58%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $162 −$47 -29%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $363 −$211 -58%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $179 −$46 -26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $183 +$57 +31%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $182 +$128 +70%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $188 −$186 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $115 +$85 +73%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $161 −$160 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $88 +$62 +70%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $103 +$91 +89%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $342 −$196 -57%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $167 +$117 +70%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $86 −$85 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $163 −$160 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $176 −$43 -25%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $174 −$172 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $270 −$100 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $51 1m
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 2m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 4m
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 4m
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed SELL OG 62¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 45¢ $42 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 61¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 52¢ $51 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed SELL OG 75¢ $49 3h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed SELL OG 74¢ $15 3h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 62¢ $51 3h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 58¢ $51 4h
Federico Valverde: 3+ shots BUY Yes 59¢ $51 15h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 44¢ $51 15h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $192 16h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $101 18h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 100¢ $3 23h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 46¢ $51 24h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 48¢ $56 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $85 45h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 59¢ $51 47h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 60¢ $18 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL TDK 46¢ $57 5d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 40¢ $51 5d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 19¢ $23 5d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $51 5d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 5d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL 100 Thieves 31¢ $27 5d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 48¢ $42 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $266.09 · official $266.11 (match) · 3500 history records