Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:02:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C1 0xc1c0…4cd4 world 12 markets active 5d ago coverage 105d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$4,351 (+37%) realized +$4,840 · open −$489
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +254% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +208% what you keep after slip
Net edge+208%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$990per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$1,568now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$4,482
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$6,313
other 28% −$1,629
politics 3% −$333
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+220.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -93.4% -94.0% 0% 0% -82.7%
≤90d 7 +209.3% +179.9% 14% 14% -2.6%
all 8 +254.0% +220.3% 25% 25% +23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +220.3% 25% +23.3%
10% +189.6% 25% +11.5%
15% +161.7% 25% +0.7%
20% +136.0% 25% -9.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +254% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5,743 vs −$1,108 · ×5.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$1,568
Realized+$4,840
Unrealized−$489
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage105d
Avg bet$990
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $557 $613 +$56 (+10%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $500 $518 +$18 (+4%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $500 $312 −$188 (-38%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $500 $125 −$375 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,163 −$1,140 -98%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 30 $4,000 −$2,942 -74%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 19 $3,000 −$1,830 -61%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $333 −$333 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 12 $368 +$8,658 +2355%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 05 $499 +$2,828 +567%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $515 5d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $515 5d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $306 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $515 5d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $268 9d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $1,163 17d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $1,058 17d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY No 20¢ $200 25d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? BUY No 8¢ $200 26d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $1,170 58d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $4,000 63d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $3,000 63d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 23¢ $333 65d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 4¢ $68 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 4¢ $300 70d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $499 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,568.06 · official $1,568.06 (match) · 27 history records