Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:02:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C1 0xc1c1…7953 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$98 (+17%) realized +$98 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$57
other 46% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -8.3% -17.1% 58% 58% -0.0%
≤30d 19 -8.3% -17.1% 58% 58% -0.0%
≤90d 19 -8.3% -17.1% 58% 58% -0.0%
all 19 -8.3% -17.1% 58% 58% -0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 58% -0.0%
10% -25.0% 53% -9.6%
15% -32.2% 42% -18.3%
20% -38.9% 32% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$18 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage4d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $32 −$32 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $50 +$15 +31%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 −$3 -43%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $34 +$17 +51%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $14 +$7 +52%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $64 +$23 +36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $39 +$28 +70%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 19 $30 +$22 +73%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $47 +$7 +16%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$25 +124%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 17 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 61¢ $32 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $50 22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 66¢ $34 24h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 38h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 65¢ $14 38h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $39 45h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $64 45h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $30 47h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 57¢ $30 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 86¢ $47 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 3d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 33¢ $10 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 44¢ $20 3d
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce SELL Fenerbahce 100¢ $77 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 4d
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 65¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records