Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1c4…a2cc crypto 348 markets active 13h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$224 (-3%) realized −$224 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate84%292W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$179
7 days−$239
14 days−$292
30 days−$287
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$289
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -6.4% -15.4% 82% 53% -14.6%
≤30d 345 -2.2% -11.5% 84% 57% -12.7%
≤90d 347 -2.4% -11.7% 84% 57% -12.7%
all 347 -2.4% -11.7% 84% 57% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 57% -12.7%
10% -20.1% 11% -21.1%
15% -27.9% 3% -28.7%
20% -34.9% 1% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$24 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$224
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses292 / 55
Open positions0
Markets (closed)347 / 348
History coverage31d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 347 Trades
no open positions (52 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$39 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $37 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $43 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$29 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $60 −$59 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $42 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $39 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $62 −$61 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $37 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $43 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $43 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $45 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $58 −$57 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $61 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $48 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$13 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $47 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $42 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $54 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $56 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $48 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $48 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $49 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $59 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $24 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $44 +$11 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $46 −$45 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $68 −$68 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $55 +$6 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $40 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $37 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $38 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $40 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $37 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $43 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $31 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $29 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $60 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $42 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $29 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $32 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $39 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $62 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $51 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $14 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $44 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $37 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $52 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $43 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $33 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $32 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $50 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $26 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $43 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $27 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $45 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $58 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $58 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $61 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 645 history records