Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:41:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C1 0xc1c4…bbfb sports 755 markets active 0h ago coverage 269d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 268d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,145 (-2%) realized −$2,025 · open −$120
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%331W / 401L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$661est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$986now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 269d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$131
sports 38% +$535
finance 2% −$91
politics 2% +$4
world 2% −$173
crypto 2% −$80
tech 1% +$70
economics 1% −$13
culture 0% −$5
weather 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +32.4% +19.8% 61% 55% +14.7%
≤30d 151 -15.6% -23.6% 42% 34% -20.3%
≤90d 326 -0.5% -10.0% 45% 37% -8.6%
all 732 -2.5% -11.8% 45% 38% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 38% -9.3%
10% -20.2% 33% -18.0%
15% -27.9% 28% -25.9%
20% -35.0% 24% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$77 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$986
Realized−$2,025
Unrealized−$120
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses331 / 401
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$661
Open positions22
Markets (closed)732 / 755
History coverage269d ⚠
Avg bet$155
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 732 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 32¢ 32¢ $674 $663 −$11 (-2%)
Will Amazon acquire TikTok? No 94¢ 99¢ $78 $81 +$4 (+5%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 43¢ 84¢ $15 $30 +$15 (+95%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+6%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 34¢ 14¢ $48 $20 −$28 (-57%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Under 48¢ 46¢ $19 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 41¢ $82 $17 −$65 (-80%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 56¢ $18 $17 −$2 (-10%)
Will JD Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 15¢ $33 $16 −$17 (-51%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Austria 64¢ 62¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score No 61¢ 62¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 55¢ 55¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? No 26¢ 14¢ $22 $11 −$11 (-48%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Egypt 36¢ 36¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Under 28¢ 28¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 74¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 13¢ $6 $4 −$3 (-42%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Uruguay 61¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Walmart acquire TikTok? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $50 +$14 +29%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $37 +$63 +171%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $43 +$58 +134%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $527 −$515 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $21 −$20 -98%
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $126 +$1 +0%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 +$9 +79%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $14 +$10 +73%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $692 +$643 +93%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $13 +$20 +150%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 18 $16 +$18 +119%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 +$13 +79%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $49 +$22 +45%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $58 +$42 +72%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$30 +101%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $106 +$54 +50%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $39 +$62 +156%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $22 +$70 +317%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $22 +$82 +376%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 +$8 +152%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 14 $7 +$11 +147%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $24 +$44 +183%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$5 +54%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $32 +$101 +317%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $18 +$119 +669%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$8 +186%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $68 +$32 +47%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $126 +$34 +27%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 11 $72 −$72 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 11 $33 −$32 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $60 −$60 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 10 $49 −$49 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $118 +$302 +257%
Modena: Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 10 $4 +$5 +101%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $81 +$20 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 61¢ $1 15m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 55¢ $12 20m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $221 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $394 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $73 2h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 36¢ $6 4h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 6h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $13 10h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 28¢ $6 10h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $13 20h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $7 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 21h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 21h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 37¢ $8 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $21 25h
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? BUY No 37¢ $4 26h
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? BUY No 37¢ $1 26h
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? BUY No 37¢ $1 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $43 26h
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? BUY No 37¢ $3 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $525 28h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 36¢ $19 29h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof SELL Virtus.pro 56¢ $127 29h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY Virtus.pro 55¢ $126 29h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $10 29h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 29¢ $5 29h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $7 29h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 36¢ $9 29h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 64¢ $14 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $986.18 · official $986.19 (match) · 3500 history records