Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:48:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C1 0xc1c8…6e5c sports 102 markets active 12h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,461 (+3%) realized +$1,461 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%50W / 51L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$534per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$474
7 days−$761
14 days−$313
30 days−$528
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$210
other 13% +$95
crypto 1% −$256
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -20.1% -27.7% 43% 41% -21.1%
≤30d 79 -17.9% -25.7% 44% 42% -13.8%
≤90d 79 -17.9% -25.7% 44% 42% -13.8%
all 101 -16.0% -24.0% 50% 44% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 44% -9.4%
10% -31.3% 36% -18.1%
15% -37.9% 27% -26.0%
20% -44.0% 16% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$188 vs −$183 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,461
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses50 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions0
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage251d
Avg bet$534
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 101 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 −$50 -49%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $152 −$98 -65%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $50 +$24 +48%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $50 +$22 +44%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $301 −$300 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $25 −$25 -99%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $302 +$103 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $202 −$202 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $203 −$200 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $202 +$72 +36%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$42 +42%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$53 +105%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 +$27 +134%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $505 +$233 +46%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $152 +$94 +62%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $102 −$8 -8%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $203 +$142 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $203 +$145 +72%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $202 +$67 +33%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 −$42 -82%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $71 −$50 -71%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$9 -86%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$92 +180%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 +$44 +86%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $603 −$600 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 +$5 +14%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $51 −$23 -45%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 +$3 +3%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $202 +$53 +26%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $302 +$58 +19%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $20 +$24 +116%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$20 -39%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $51 −$34 -67%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $91 −$57 -63%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 −$30 -50%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $503 +$137 +27%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $56 −$28 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 62¢ $50 12h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 63¢ $51 12h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $51 12h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $51 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $301 12h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $51 12h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 12h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $25 15h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $50 15h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $50 15h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 36h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $202 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $51 38h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 65¢ $101 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $203 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 10¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $202 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 11¢ $16 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $20 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 41¢ $94 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 278 history records