Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1c9…6872 finance 361 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,106 (+2%) realized +$7,106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate56%201W / 160L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$884per market
Trades / day39.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$458
7 days+$864
14 days+$812
30 days+$2,377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$57
finance 31% +$4,219
world 23% +$1,224
weather 1% −$310
crypto 1% −$92
politics 1% +$66
sports 0% +$50
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -4.7% -13.8% 64% 14% -9.0%
≤30d 88 -1.2% -10.6% 61% 20% -8.5%
≤90d 361 -2.4% -11.7% 56% 27% -8.1%
all 361 -2.4% -11.7% 56% 27% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 27% -8.1%
10% -20.2% 18% -16.9%
15% ← realistic here -27.9% 12% -24.9%
20% -34.9% 10% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$33 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7,106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses201 / 160
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)361 / 361
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$884
Trades / day39.3
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 361 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $2,495 −$108 -4%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 17 $137,278 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $69 +$30 +44%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1,334 +$462 +35%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $263 −$149 -56%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $6 $0 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $618 +$222 +36%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15? Jun 15 $18 $0 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 15? Jun 15 $21 +$1 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$2 +10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? Jun 15 $162 +$4 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $742 +$15 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -50%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -88%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $7 −$6 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7 $0 +5%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $7 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $4,427 +$323 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $224 +$16 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $183 +$7 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $395 −$27 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $783 +$87 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $74 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $568 −$51 -9%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $273 −$1 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $634 +$39 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $4,166 −$370 -9%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $1,199 +$177 +15%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Jun 09 $81 +$1 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 8? Jun 08 $19 +$1 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $241 +$22 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 08 $94 +$6 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 08 $114 +$16 +14%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 8? Jun 08 $66 +$16 +24%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 8? Jun 08 $27 $0 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $3,357 −$448 -13%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $26 −$5 -19%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $1,048 +$162 +15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $10 −$1 -11%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $2,848 +$369 +13%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $175 −$17 -10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $3,785 +$364 +10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 2? Jun 02 $49 −$45 -93%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $180 −$15 -8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $880 −$13 -2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $511 +$40 +8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $1,359 +$41 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 01 $97 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 47¢ $68 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 43¢ $65 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 60¢ $336 9h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 21¢ $116 9h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 29¢ $477 9h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 80¢ $1,290 10h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 62¢ $37 11h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 63¢ $39 11h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 73¢ $400 11h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 73¢ $400 11h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 77¢ $4 12h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 13h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 55¢ $506 15h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 56¢ $114 15h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 100¢ $793 21h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 26¢ $115 28h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 57¢ $67 29h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 57¢ $196 29h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 95¢ $10 30h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 92¢ $82 31h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 90¢ $5 31h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 69¢ $52 32h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 69¢ $17 32h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 69¢ $112 33h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 67¢ $3 34h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 67¢ $3 34h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 68¢ $3 34h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 68¢ $3 34h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 67¢ $3 34h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 67¢ $3 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records