Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:16:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C1 0xc1c9…4e07 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$328 (+55%) realized +$330 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +49% what you keep after slip
Net edge+49%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$160
sports 32% +$195
world 9% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+55.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +71.5% +55.1% 56% 56% +46.2%
≤30d 16 +71.5% +55.1% 56% 56% +46.2%
≤90d 16 +71.5% +55.1% 56% 56% +46.2%
all 16 +71.5% +55.1% 56% 56% +46.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +55.1% 56% +46.2%
10% +40.3% 56% +32.2%
15% +26.7% 56% +19.5%
20% +14.3% 50% +7.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +62% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +71% · $-wt +62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +125% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$25 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.71 per $1 lost it wins $2.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$330
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage6d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 +$90 +422%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $53 +$24 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 +$38 +178%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$43 +82%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $53 +$31 +58%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 +$122 +570%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $53 +$54 +102%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 +$50 +236%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$31 +149%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $53 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 12h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 12h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $53 34h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 44h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $53 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $21 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $53 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $53 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.95 · official $87.95 (match) · 33 history records