Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:57:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C1 0xc1c9…3e2f other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$15 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$3,335now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$13
other 35% +$13
world 11% −$2
politics 8% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +5.3% -4.8% 50% 50% -4.5%
≤30d 2 +5.3% -4.8% 50% 50% -4.5%
≤90d 2 +5.3% -4.8% 50% 50% -4.5%
all 2 +5.3% -4.8% 50% 50% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 50% -4.5%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 0% -13.6%
15% -22.2% 0% -22.0%
20% -29.8% 0% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$0 · ×35.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×35.06 per $1 lost it wins $35.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3,335
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions26
Markets (closed)2 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $1,000 $995 −$5 (-1%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 93¢ 94¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 94¢ 94¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 87¢ 86¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 87¢ 82¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $111 +$12 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $101 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $101 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? BUY No 94¢ $101 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $101 11h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $101 12h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 87¢ $102 12h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 21¢ $104 14h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $101 14h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $101 14h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $101 15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $52 15h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $52 15h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $52 15h
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 100¢ $101 15h
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 15h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $101 15h
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 100¢ $101 16h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $101 16h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $101 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $101 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $102 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $103 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $101 21h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1,013 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $102 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $102 21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $102 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $101 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $111 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,335.37 · official $3,335.43 (match) · 31 history records