Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:35:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1d3…7d51 world 548 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$155 (+2%) realized +$120 · open +$182
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate73%375W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day40.8pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$552now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days−$8
14 days+$124
30 days+$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$164
sports 23% +$104
politics 13% +$77
other 10% −$14
crypto 7% +$32
finance 5% −$16
tech 2% −$50
economics 1% +$1
weather 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -5.8% -14.8% 71% 27% -10.8%
≤30d 147 +9.1% -1.3% 76% 30% -2.2%
≤90d 517 +2.2% -7.6% 73% 27% -8.1%
all 517 +2.2% -7.6% 73% 27% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 27% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 17% -16.9%
15% -24.5% 12% -24.9%
20% -31.9% 10% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$552
Realized+$120
Unrealized+$182
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses375 / 142
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions31
Markets (closed)517 / 548
History coverage74d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day40.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 517 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 21¢ 76¢ $50 $181 +$131 (+261%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 86¢ $16 $48 +$32 (+196%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 82¢ 100¢ $35 $43 +$8 (+22%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $38 $41 +$2 (+6%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $215 in June? No 80¢ 99¢ $28 $35 +$7 (+24%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $210 in June? No 74¢ 97¢ $22 $29 +$7 (+31%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 97¢ 99¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-7%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 96¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 37¢ 39¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+6%)
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 93¢ 99¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+7%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 91¢ 79¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-13%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $510 in June? No 83¢ 98¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+18%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $495 in June? No 77¢ 94¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+21%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 35¢ $3 $7 +$3 (+111%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 18¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+181%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 41¢ 99¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+142%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $205 in June? No 65¢ 94¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $23 +$16 +70%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 +71%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $37 +$10 +27%
Odo vs. Hursey: Total Games O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $205? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$3 +21%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $58 +$3 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Anas Mazdrashki vs David Eichenseher Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $5 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $31 −$1 -3%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $17 +$5 +32%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $20 $0 +2%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in May? Jun 10 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 10 $8 +$2 +22%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ernesto Bello win the 2026 Castrovillari mayoral election? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
France vs. Northern Ireland: Draw at halftime? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
France leading at halftime? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$1 +44%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $4 +$2 +59%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $9 $0 +1%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $34 $0 +0%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $38 +$4 +12%
Exact Score: Equatorial Guinea 0 - 0 Comoros? Jun 08 $8 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $8 +$2 +23%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $38 −$7 -19%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Jun 08 $9 $0 +1%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $5 $0 +4%
Will "Kai Harada" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Jun 08 $8 −$2 -32%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $8 15m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $7 16m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $1 17m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $3 40m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $2 40m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $16 40m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $16 46m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 96¢ $0 53m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 96¢ $7 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 96¢ $9 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 93¢ $10 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $7 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 96¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $15 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 93¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 92¢ $0 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 92¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $23 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $551.59 · official $551.59 (match) · 3352 history records