Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:01:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1d4…82f9 crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$91 · open −$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$80
crypto 45% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.1% -14.1% 44% 44% -4.2%
≤30d 9 -5.1% -14.1% 44% 44% -4.2%
≤90d 9 -5.1% -14.1% 44% 44% -4.2%
all 9 -5.1% -14.1% 44% 44% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 44% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 44% -13.4%
15% -29.8% 33% -21.7%
20% -36.7% 22% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$12 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$91
Unrealized−$92
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $98 $6 −$92 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$33 +318%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $43 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 4h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 4¢ $11 4h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $94 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.38 · official $6.38 (match) · 23 history records