Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:29:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1d4…61a7 world 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+2%) realized −$49 · open +$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%21W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$6
14 days−$7
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$7
finance 9% +$3
other 6% $0
politics 4% $0
sports 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -3.4% -12.6% 75% 69% -4.5%
≤30d 45 -22.0% -29.4% 47% 44% -30.8%
≤90d 46 -23.7% -30.9% 46% 43% -31.8%
all 46 -23.7% -30.9% 46% 43% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.9% 43% -31.8%
10% -37.5% 15% -38.3%
15% -43.6% 9% -44.3%
20% -49.1% 7% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses21 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions29
Markets (closed)46 / 75
History coverage31d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? No 26¢ 69¢ $10 $27 +$17 (+170%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 41¢ 94¢ $10 $22 +$13 (+131%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? No 44¢ 80¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+81%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 67¢ 90¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+35%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? No 78¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$3 (+28%)
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? No 57¢ 74¢ $10 $12 +$3 (+29%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? No 70¢ 86¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 76¢ 84¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 88¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 80¢ 92¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+16%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 44¢ 100¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+125%)
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes 88¢ 87¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 85¢ 85¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 80¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 78¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 77¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? No 88¢ 95¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 85¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 72¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 88¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 87¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$2 +18%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +20%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +15%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $10 +$6 +65%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $10 +$4 +43%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 +$2 +18%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$2 -30%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +26%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $1 +$4 +426%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $1 +$3 +335%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 -18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $2 $0 +11%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $3 −$3 -91%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $4 +$1 +23%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by Augus BUY Yes 88¢ $1 20m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 20m
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runof BUY Yes 87¢ $1 22m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 23m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 25m
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 86¢ $1 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $1 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $0 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $0 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $0 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $0 12h
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by Augus BUY Yes 90¢ $1 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $0 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $0 13h
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $1 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $1 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $0 14h
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $1 24h
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 70¢ $1 24h
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 85¢ $1 24h
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $1 24h
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $1 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $1 24h
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $1 24h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 32¢ $1 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $0 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $0 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.69 · official $192.69 (match) · 534 history records