Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:53:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1db…1c72 crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$52 (-9%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%19W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$165
7 days−$165
14 days−$165
30 days−$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -26.2% -33.3% 39% 32% -62.3%
≤30d 31 -26.2% -33.3% 39% 32% -62.3%
≤90d 31 -26.2% -33.3% 39% 32% -62.3%
all 40 -11.9% -20.3% 48% 42% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 42% -21.5%
10% -27.9% 40% -29.0%
15% -34.9% 30% -35.9%
20% -41.2% 25% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage153d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$5 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$14 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$8 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$19 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jan 24 $23 +$15 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jan 22 $24 +$22 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jan 22 $14 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jan 22 $57 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jan 22 $62 +$20 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jan 22 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jan 22 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jan 22 $8 +$12 +147%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Jan 20 $50 +$17 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 179 history records