Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:54:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C1 0xc1ec…64b6 sports 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,778 (+17%) realized +$1,774 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate28%22W / 57L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$188est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$152
14 days−$250
30 days−$1,031
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$1,803
other 3% −$168
crypto 2% −$47
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -14.7% -22.9% 33% 33% -14.8%
≤30d 63 -34.0% -40.3% 25% 25% -24.5%
≤90d 79 -25.4% -32.5% 28% 27% +4.6%
all 79 -25.4% -32.5% 28% 27% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.5% 27% +4.6%
10% -39.0% 27% -5.4%
15% -44.9% 27% -14.6%
20% -50.3% 27% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$335 vs −$101 · ×3.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$1,774
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses22 / 57
Est. fees paid−$188
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage38d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 64¢ $97 $101 +$4 (+4%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 22¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+361%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 −$3 -3%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $100 +$54 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -95%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $76 +$45 +59%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $49 +$126 +257%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $40 −$39 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $70 −$68 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $497 −$485 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $177 −$173 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$47 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$40 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Valorant: Stray Kittens vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regu Jun 19 $95 −$95 -100%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $181 −$179 -99%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 18 $118 −$116 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $27 −$26 -97%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $149 +$177 +119%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL N Jun 18 $89 −$86 -97%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $283 +$181 +64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $181 +$196 +108%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $133 +$446 +335%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $67 −$66 -98%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $100 −$98 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $13 −$13 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 06 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $61 −$59 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $135 −$132 -98%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $69 −$68 -98%
LoL: L Guide Gaming vs RAYN Clocks (BO3) - LJL Regular Season Jun 04 $56 −$56 -100%
Valorant: QoR vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner Jun 02 $50 −$49 -98%
Valorant: QoR vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Sta Jun 02 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: Division One vs YFP Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 02 $12 −$12 -98%
Valorant: SaD Esports vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 02 $46 −$45 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $49 −$48 -97%
Valorant: AB3 Esports vs Contra (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regul Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $65 +$308 +473%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $72 −$70 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $68 −$67 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Cha May 29 $99 −$97 -98%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challe May 29 $48 −$47 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $98 35m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $56 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $690 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 22¢ $153 5h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $154 5h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 64¢ $100 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $18 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 7h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL roamsfiest 100¢ $121 7h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY roamsfiest 62¢ $76 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.09 · official $100.98 (match) · 149 history records