Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:03:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C1 0xc1f3…229f crypto 1270 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 107d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,321 (-6%) realized −$2,321 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%541W / 736L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day30.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$505
7 days−$505
14 days−$505
30 days−$1,863
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$3,339
other 1% −$208
sports 1% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -73.5% -76.0% 14% 14% -71.8%
≤30d 509 -22.4% -29.8% 38% 37% -24.9%
≤90d 588 -19.9% -27.5% 37% 37% -25.3%
all 1277 -15.9% -23.9% 42% 41% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.9% 41% -20.2%
10% ← realistic here -31.2% 38% -27.8%
15% -37.8% 32% -34.8%
20% -43.9% 28% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$21 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,321
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses541 / 736
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1277 / 1270
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day30.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1277 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$17 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$19 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $36 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $12 +$8 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $46 −$10 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $23 −$12 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 03 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3PM ET Jun 03 $9 −$8 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2PM ET Jun 03 $13 −$3 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $7 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records