Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:16:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1f4…2a00 other 284 markets active 2h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$59 (+4%) realized +$69 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate68%186W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$130
14 days+$97
30 days+$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$10
sports 19% +$5
crypto 8% +$13
weather 5% −$7
world 3% −$3
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +23.2% +11.4% 46% 21% +57.7%
≤30d 151 +10.8% +0.3% 75% 15% +4.7%
≤90d 268 -7.3% -16.1% 67% 12% -9.6%
all 275 -6.6% -15.5% 68% 13% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 13% -7.5%
10% -23.6% 11% -16.3%
15% -31.0% 9% -24.4%
20% -37.7% 9% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized+$69
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses186 / 89
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)275 / 284
History coverage599d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 28 $1 +$2 +193%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $18 +$30 +162%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $42 +$9 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 39°C on June 27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 28? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 28? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 28? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on June 27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 27 $1 $0 -13%
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions w Jun 27 $3 −$1 -34%
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $15 $0 +3%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions w Jun 26 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $10 −$7 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $9 +$99 +1084%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $7 +$16 +226%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$2 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $3 $0 +3%
Exact Score: IK Start 0 - 1 Vålerenga Fotball? Jun 23 $1 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Notts County FC 2 - 1 Salford City FC? Jun 23 $1 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Notts County FC 1 - 2 Salford City FC? Jun 23 $1 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $7 −$5 -70%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Jun 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -92%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $15 −$14 -89%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $31 −$24 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $21 −$4 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -11%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$23 +229%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$1 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $18 +$5 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $13 +$3 +23%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 13? Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes $31 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $62 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 11h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $48 25h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY Yes $5 26h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 26h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 26h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 35h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $27 46h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 39°C on June 27? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 27? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 28? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 28? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 27? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on June 27? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY Yes 33¢ $1 2d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions w SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 2d
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 2d
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions w SELL Yes 67¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 3d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.40 · official $141.40 (match) · 600 history records