Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:04:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1f7…78fe culture 30 markets active 2d ago coverage 313d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$42 (-5%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate27%8W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$50
14 days+$50
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$176
world 25% +$25
culture 12% +$54
sports 8% +$74
politics 1% −$11
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +152.5% +128.5% 60% 60% +63.1%
≤30d 5 +152.5% +128.5% 60% 60% +63.1%
≤90d 5 +152.5% +128.5% 60% 60% +63.1%
all 30 +45.4% +31.6% 27% 23% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.6% 23% -20.7%
10% +19.0% 23% -28.3%
15% +7.5% 20% -35.2%
20% -3.0% 20% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +80% too few recent
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late +142% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$15 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

313d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses8 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage313d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$5 +509%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $19 +$54 +276%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Jun 13 $9 +$8 +82%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12? Oct 12 $36 −$17 -47%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $2 +$115 +5734%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 07 $40 −$28 -70%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by September 15? Sep 04 $53 −$34 -63%
Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 03 $6 −$3 -46%
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? Aug 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Rodrygo Silva de Goes sign with a new club during the transfer wi Aug 31 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by August 31? Aug 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025? Aug 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords in 2025? Aug 25 $10 +$1 +7%
Israel x Syria security deal before September? Aug 24 $1 $0 -12%
Will Atletico Madrid vs. Elche CF end in a draw? Aug 23 $46 +$15 +33%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-23? Aug 23 $192 −$146 -76%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35-40 million views on day 1? Aug 17 $220 −$12 -6%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel strikes Yemen by August 31? Aug 17 $90 +$96 +107%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Aug 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 10 $20 −$3 -17%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 09 $30 −$20 -66%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ursula von der Leyen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $6 45h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 16¢ $1 46h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $19 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $16 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $16 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 5d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $9 78d
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 11¢ $11 187d
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 249d
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12? SELL Yes 37¢ $19 249d
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 249d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 284d
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 284d
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? SELL Yes 5¢ $12 284d
Will Russia capture Rodynske by September 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $20 286d
Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 287d
Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025? BUY Yes 90¢ $6 289d
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? BUY No 0¢ $1 290d
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? BUY No 1¢ $1 290d
Will Rodrygo Silva de Goes sign with a new club during the transfer wi SELL No 93¢ $8 290d
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 293d
Will Russia capture Rodynske by September 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $53 293d
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 295d
Houthi strike on Israel by August 31? BUY No 0¢ $1 295d
Houthi strike on Israel by August 31? BUY No 0¢ $2 295d
Houthi strike on Israel by August 31? BUY No 0¢ $1 296d
Houthi strike on Israel by August 31? BUY No 0¢ $3 296d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 296d
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords in 2025? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 296d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records