Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:41:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1fc…4a59 other 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$408 (-6%) realized −$469 · open +$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate60%53W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$488
7 days−$488
14 days−$488
30 days−$488
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$501
other 31% −$295
tech 14% +$38
sports 8% −$85
politics 1% +$12
world 1% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -3.7% -12.9% 65% 38% -20.5%
≤30d 26 -3.7% -12.9% 65% 38% -20.5%
≤90d 26 -3.7% -12.9% 65% 38% -20.5%
all 89 -8.8% -17.5% 60% 45% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 45% -21.4%
10% -25.4% 31% -28.9%
15% -32.6% 28% -35.8%
20% -39.2% 20% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$57 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized−$469
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses53 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage228d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Up 30¢ 48¢ $100 $161 +$61 (+61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $104 −$6 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $105 −$52 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $105 −$98 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $205 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $105 −$69 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $207 −$136 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $134 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $105 +$42 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $205 −$7 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $105 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $105 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $205 +$30 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $316 −$316 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $206 +$30 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $214 +$53 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 19 $105 −$14 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$36 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? Jun 19 $979 +$38 +4%
Will Everton win on 2025-11-24? Nov 24 $237 −$237 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-22? Nov 24 $43 +$9 +20%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-24? Nov 24 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $45 +$29 +64%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $90 +$12 +14%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $45 +$9 +19%
Will FC Twente '65 win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Will SBV Excelsior win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $45 −$25 -55%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? Nov 10 $39 +$29 +75%
Will Samsunspor win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $45 +$84 +186%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $45 +$33 +72%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $45 +$19 +42%
Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $45 −$45 -100%
Will FK Krasnodar win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $30 −$8 -25%
Will FK Spartak Moskva win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $30 +$35 +117%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Kocaelispor win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $45 −$45 -100%
Will FC Utrecht win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will CD Santa Clara win on 2025-11-08? Nov 09 $45 +$13 +30%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? Nov 09 $45 +$26 +59%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $45 +$28 +61%
Parma vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5 Nov 08 $45 +$48 +106%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $45 +$20 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $97 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $53 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $7 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $110 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $35 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $30 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $42 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $16 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $117 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $147 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $52 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.50 · official $160.50 (match) · 188 history records