Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:48:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C1 0xc1fc…9159 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$762 (-10%) realized −$764 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%21W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$206
7 days+$184
14 days+$78
30 days−$692
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$74
sports 31% −$617
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +19.7% +8.3% 75% 75% -3.8%
≤30d 34 -6.9% -15.8% 62% 62% -19.3%
≤90d 34 -6.9% -15.8% 62% 62% -19.3%
all 34 -6.9% -15.8% 62% 62% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 62% -19.3%
10% -23.8% 50% -27.0%
15% -31.2% 35% -34.1%
20% -37.9% 24% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$175 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$289
Realized−$764
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses21 / 13
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage23d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $288 $289 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $220 +$69 +31%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $421 −$419 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $276 +$144 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $247 +$30 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $173 +$73 +42%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $107 +$66 +62%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $111 −$4 -4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $258 −$252 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Swit Jun 19 $55 +$42 +75%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $110 +$52 +47%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $264 +$58 +22%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $110 +$154 +140%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $218 +$119 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $176 +$42 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $112 +$64 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $341 −$337 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $297 +$45 +15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $95 +$104 +110%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $76 +$18 +24%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $158 +$17 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $111 +$47 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $56 −$54 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $56 −$54 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $341 −$340 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $224 +$117 +52%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $197 −$193 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $201 −$199 -99%
Will Córdoba CF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $116 −$115 -99%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $369 +$146 +40%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $298 +$72 +24%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $148 −$146 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 30 $337 +$108 +32%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $112 −$111 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $289 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 84¢ $288 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $220 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 44¢ $553 32h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $421 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $420 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $276 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $247 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $247 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $173 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $174 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $107 3d
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 64¢ $107 3d
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 65¢ $111 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $258 3d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Swit SELL 69¢ $97 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 94¢ $162 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $110 4d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Swit BUY 38¢ $55 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18 BUY 35¢ $55 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $322 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $264 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $265 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $110 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $55 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $218 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $218 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $176 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $176 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $112 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.38 · official $289.38 (match) · 62 history records