Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:22:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1fd…948e other 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (329 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$36,264 (-69%) realized −$35,004 · open −$1,260
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -86% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -90% what you keep after slip
Net edge-90%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate3%9W / 271L
Whale WR9%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$369per market
Trades / day328.9pace
Fees−$217est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$7,302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18,697
7 days−$30,574
14 days−$37,971
30 days−$37,971
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$19,420
sports 23% +$405
crypto 6% −$2,973
world 0% −$76
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (329 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-87.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 240 -92.8% -93.5% 2% 2% -69.5%
≤30d 280 -86.3% -87.6% 3% 2% -63.5%
≤90d 280 -86.3% -87.6% 3% 2% -63.5%
all 280 -86.3% -87.6% 3% 2% -63.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover328.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -87.6% 2% -63.5%
10% ← realistic here -88.8% 2% -67.0%
15% -89.9% 2% -70.2%
20% -90.9% 2% -73.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -86% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 9% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -73% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
23.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,716 vs −$197 · ×8.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$7,302
Realized−$35,004
Unrealized−$1,260
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses9 / 271
Whale WR (big bets)9%
Est. fees paid−$217
Open positions20
Markets (closed)280 / 142
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$369
Trades / day328.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? No 36¢ 25¢ $2,420 $1,690 −$729 (-30%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 35¢ 32¢ $1,602 $1,442 −$160 (-10%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1,100 $1,150 +$50 (+5%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Norway 62¢ 55¢ $756 $659 −$97 (-13%)
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $429 $456 +$27 (+6%)
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 89¢ 72¢ $509 $414 −$95 (-19%)
Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch? No 84¢ 72¢ $399 $344 −$55 (-14%)
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $201 $219 +$18 (+9%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $226 $216 −$10 (-5%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $205 $174 −$31 (-15%)
Abstract FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 94¢ 92¢ $141 $138 −$3 (-2%)
Abstract FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 84¢ 86¢ $114 $118 +$3 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $98 $116 +$17 (+18%)
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $73 $76 +$2 (+3%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? No 83¢ 99¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+19%)
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $360 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30? Yes 93¢ 10¢ $73 $8 −$65 (-89%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $38 $7 −$30 (-81%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $102 $1 −$100 (-99%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? Yes 43¢ 5¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 267 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 26 $93 −$93 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Jun 26 $117 −$117 -100%
Cavaliers vs. 76ers Jun 26 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9AM ET Jun 26 $177 −$177 -100%
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves Jun 26 $271 −$276 -102%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 30? Jun 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors Jun 26 $20 −$55 -275%
Pistons vs. Hornets Jun 26 $53 −$53 -100%
UFC 325: Mullarkey vs. Salkilld (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be orange? Jun 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Suns vs. 76ers Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Pelicans Jun 26 $59 −$59 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Nuggets vs. Mavericks Jun 26 $192 −$190 -99%
Clippers vs. Kings Jun 26 $770 −$770 -100%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Jun 26 $42 −$42 -100%
Lakers vs. Knicks Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Canucks vs. Penguins Jun 26 $108 −$108 -100%
Spurs vs. Celtics Jun 26 $176 −$176 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Heroic (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9AM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Nuggets vs. Pistons Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Purdue Boilermakers Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 19? Jun 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 26 $130 −$133 -102%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 26 $505 −$505 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Sharks Jun 26 $78 −$78 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Panthers vs. Lightning Jun 26 $31 −$31 -101%
Knicks vs. Wizards Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Blues vs. Utah Jun 26 $5,300 −$5,300 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 26 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Ultra Prime (BO3) Jun 26 $77 −$77 -100%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be purple? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 26 $191 −$191 -100%
Bulls vs. Raptors Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will "Efecto" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 31¢ $128 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 11¢ $233 1h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? BUY Yes 8¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 10¢ $210 1h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? BUY Yes 8¢ $400 1h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $429 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $45 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $135 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $126 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 63¢ $562 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 63¢ $68 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,301.68 · official $7,267.87 (match) · 3500 history records