Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:29:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C2 0xc200…0ae9 other 6 markets active 4h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$199 (+16%) realized +$207 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$792now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +11.0% +0.5% 80% 80% +25.0%
≤30d 5 +11.0% +0.5% 80% 80% +25.0%
≤90d 5 +11.0% +0.5% 80% 80% +25.0%
all 5 +11.0% +0.5% 80% 80% +25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 80% +25.0%
10% -9.1% 60% +13.1%
15% -17.9% 40% +2.1%
20% -26.0% 20% -7.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$20 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.12 per $1 lost it wins $9.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$792
Realized+$207
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage4d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 66¢ 65¢ $800 $792 −$8 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $158 +$99 +63%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $105 +$45 +43%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $89 +$30 +34%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $53 +$9 +16%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $578 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $263 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $257 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $158 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $105 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 94¢ $119 28h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $89 31h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 82¢ $61 32h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $53 33h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $791.72 · official $791.72 (match) · 11 history records