Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc201…587c other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate48%16W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$2
other 21% $0
politics 16% +$1
crypto 10% −$1
finance 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.6% -8.9% 75% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 6 -2.4% -11.7% 67% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 6 -2.4% -11.7% 67% 0% -10.4%
all 33 -1.9% -11.3% 48% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 3% -10.2%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.8%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses16 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage460d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $54 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $56 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $16 −$3 -18%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 10 $28 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -41%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 26 $7 $0 -2%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -12%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will James Monroe Inglehart win the Tony for Best Leading Actor in a M Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will "English" win the Tony for Best Play 2025? Jun 07 $9 $0 -1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jun 07 $9 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 06 $9 $0 -1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $9 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 04 $1 $0 +2%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $7 +$1 +11%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 28 $15 $0 -1%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the third most seats in the next Canadian Apr 28 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? Apr 28 $8 $0 -2%
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July? Apr 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 24 $10 −$1 -14%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 21 $2 $0 +4%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 Apr 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 30 $11 $0 +2%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Trump cryptocurrency executive order this week? Mar 19 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $27 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $27 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 59¢ $6 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 59¢ $21 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 59¢ $8 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 59¢ $19 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $18 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $18 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $7 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $27 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $27 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $29 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 61¢ $29 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $29 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $28 8d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 337d
Will Meta buy TikTok? SELL Yes $0 355d
Will Meta buy TikTok? SELL Yes $0 355d
Will Meta buy TikTok? SELL Yes $0 355d
Will Meta buy TikTok? SELL Yes $0 355d
Will Meta buy TikTok? SELL Yes $0 355d
Will Meta buy TikTok? SELL Yes $0 355d
Will Meta buy TikTok? SELL Yes $0 355d
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 SELL No 96¢ $7 356d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records