Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:32:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C2 0xc205…eec2 sports 413 markets active 2h ago coverage 696d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,497 (+5%) realized +$1,258 · open +$239
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate55%212W / 175L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$3,072now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$302
14 days+$214
30 days+$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% +$671
world 27% +$789
other 18% +$281
sports 12% −$224
culture 9% +$168
tech 1% −$129
economics 0% −$2
crypto 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +43.1% +29.4% 57% 54% +4.2%
≤30d 67 +17.5% +6.3% 48% 45% -4.1%
≤90d 120 +3.7% -6.2% 49% 43% -1.5%
all 387 -0.0% -9.5% 55% 46% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 46% -5.2%
10% -18.2% 34% -14.3%
15% -26.1% 27% -22.6%
20% -33.3% 24% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$20 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

696d coverage
Net worth$3,072
Realized+$1,258
Unrealized+$239
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses212 / 175
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions26
Markets (closed)387 / 413
History coverage696d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 387 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 79¢ 89¢ $1,096 $1,236 +$140 (+13%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $498 $483 −$15 (-3%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 71¢ $300 $284 −$16 (-5%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $278 $278 −$0 (-0%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 27¢ 80¢ $80 $240 +$160 (+200%)
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 75¢ 88¢ $173 $202 +$30 (+17%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $46 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 65¢ 48¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-25%)
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $40 $21 −$19 (-47%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-9%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+17%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-40%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+88%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 10¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+107%)
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7 +$13 +197%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$5 +119%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$25 +550%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $24 +$26 +105%
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $388 +$31 +8%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$12 +114%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$24 +237%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 +$22 +262%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$28 +388%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $129 +$39 +30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$15 +57%
World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed? Jun 13 $16 +$4 +27%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $12 +$8 +67%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 13 $87 −$87 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 13 $20 −$16 -81%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $15 +$18 +119%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 13 $915 +$274 +30%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$15 +101%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 +$18 +249%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 +$13 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $28 +$12 +41%
LA Mayoral Election: Spencer Pratt receives Over/Under 25%? Jun 11 $26 +$13 +52%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $6 +$19 +307%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 11 $20 −$19 -96%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $39 +$9 +22%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 09 $43 −$43 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 09 $41 −$41 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 04 $36 +$2 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic Jun 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Katie Boulter vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Jun 04 $435 −$170 -39%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 04 $70 −$45 -64%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 04 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 68¢ $51 1h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $52 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $9 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 16h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 17h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 19h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $5 22h
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $5 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $24 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $21 24h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 83¢ $501 28h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 46h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $15 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 3d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $169 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 3d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 72¢ $30 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $30 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,071.79 · official $3,071.93 (match) · 1547 history records