Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:46:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc205…eba7 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% $0
other 20% −$1
crypto 8% −$1
politics 7% −$1
sports 4% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
all 38 -4.7% -13.8% 34% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 3% -10.0%
10% -22.0% 0% -18.6%
15% -29.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage464d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $43 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $123 −$1 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 16–23? May 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 11 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1900 on May 16? May 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? May 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? May 08 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $7 +$1 +22%
Will Conservatives flip Liberals in the polls before the election? Apr 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 23 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $85,000 on April 25? Apr 23 $7 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 23 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $1 $0 +10%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Apr 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 23 $13 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $41 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $41 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $8 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $40 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $36 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $1 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $37 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $36 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $5 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $41 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $31 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $9 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $41 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $42 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $42 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 66¢ $20 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 6d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 180d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records