Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc209…84d0 sports 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%28W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$317
7 days−$349
14 days−$146
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$85
other 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -61.4% -65.1% 25% 25% -79.2%
≤30d 48 +3.3% -6.5% 58% 58% -13.2%
≤90d 48 +3.3% -6.5% 58% 58% -13.2%
all 48 +3.3% -6.5% 58% 58% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 58% -13.2%
10% -15.5% 52% -21.5%
15% -23.6% 46% -29.1%
20% -31.1% 38% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$36 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses28 / 20
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage14d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 77¢ 100¢ $27 $34 +$8 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $15 +$12 +76%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 17 $202 −$202 -100%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 12 $58 +$19 +33%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $25 +$12 +47%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $51 +$73 +144%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $51 +$27 +54%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 +$25 +25%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $101 +$27 +27%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $50 +$9 +18%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-3.5) vs BIG (+3.5) Jun 09 $25 +$32 +127%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $25 +$25 +99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $25 +$20 +80%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $25 +$12 +48%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $25 +$28 +109%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 08 $25 +$20 +78%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $25 +$24 +95%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 08 $25 $0 -1%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 08 $25 +$25 +99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $25 +$20 +79%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $25 +$17 +68%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $25 +$5 +21%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $45 +$10 +22%
Map Handicap: paiN (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5) Jun 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 07 $25 +$18 +71%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $65 +$40 +61%
Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5) Jun 05 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $51 −$51 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $25 +$27 +108%
Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs Lynn Vision (+1.5) Jun 05 $50 +$22 +43%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $50 −$3 -5%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $25 +$16 +65%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $25 +$30 +117%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $50 +$21 +43%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $25 +$28 +110%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-4.5) vs Lynn Vision (+4.5) Jun 04 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $27 1h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL 9z 100¢ $27 1h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 55¢ $15 42h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 63¢ $202 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $51 6d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 72¢ $50 6d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Legacy 57¢ $25 6d
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) SELL G2 100¢ $78 6d
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 73¢ $58 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $25 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $37 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 66¢ $25 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $124 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $78 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $51 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $51 7d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $25 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 100¢ $126 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 78¢ $101 7d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $128 7d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 SELL Under 99¢ $59 7d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY Vitality 55¢ $25 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 82¢ $50 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 47¢ $25 8d
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-3.5) vs BIG (+3.5) SELL B8 99¢ $58 9d
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-3.5) vs BIG (+3.5) BUY B8 42¢ $25 9d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner SELL B8 99¢ $51 9d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 48¢ $25 9d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL BIG 99¢ $46 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.34 · official $34.34 (match) · 98 history records