Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:47:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C2 0xc20a…769a other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$49 (+19%) realized +$47 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$46
14 days+$46
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$62
crypto 8% +$6
world 4% −$10
sports 4% −$10
tech 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +19.6% +8.2% 67% 50% +21.9%
≤30d 6 +19.6% +8.2% 67% 50% +21.9%
≤90d 6 +19.6% +8.2% 67% 50% +21.9%
all 6 +19.6% +8.2% 67% 50% +21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.2% 50% +21.9%
10% -2.2% 50% +10.2%
15% -11.6% 33% -0.5%
20% -20.3% 17% -10.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$10 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.28 per $1 lost it wins $3.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)6 / 13
History coverage23d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+38%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 86¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 +$50 +243%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $21 +$6 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $59 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 43¢ $70 5d
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 5d
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $26 6d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 86¢ $4 22d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.96 · official $118.96 (match) · 38 history records