Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:41:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C2 0xc20c…f8e9 sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized −$9 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$327per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,063now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$13
other 9% −$9
tech 8% +$3
crypto 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +4.6% -5.4% 67% 33% -10.3%
≤30d 3 +4.6% -5.4% 67% 33% -10.3%
≤90d 3 +4.6% -5.4% 67% 33% -10.3%
all 3 +4.6% -5.4% 67% 33% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 33% -10.3%
10% -14.4% 0% -18.9%
15% -22.7% 0% -26.8%
20% -30.3% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$1,063
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage58d
Avg bet$327
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score No 39¢ 40¢ $1,050 $1,063 +$13 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $111 −$9 -8%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $106 +$3 +3%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in April? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $1,069 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $102 5h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $111 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $109 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $106 3d
Will XRP reach $1.60 in April? BUY No 83¢ $20 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,063.46 · official $1,063.46 (match) · 9 history records