Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:30:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

C2 0xc20e…642a other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$1,455 (+8%) realized +$1,470 · open −$15

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip

Net edge-39%after slip

Net WR48%break-even

Win rate52%16W / 15L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown46%max

Avg bet$529per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Fees−$92est.

Kalshi-fit53%portable

Net worth$1,965now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +48%

net ROI/market (all)-33.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	31	-26.8%	-33.8%	52%	48%	+4.7%
≤30d	31	-26.8%	-33.8%	52%	48%	+4.7%
≤90d	31	-26.8%	-33.8%	52%	48%	+4.7%
all	31	-26.8%	-33.8%	52%	48%	+4.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-33.8%	48%	+4.7%
10%	-40.1%	42%	-5.3%
15%	-45.9%	32%	-14.5%
20%	-51.2%	16%	-22.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

6% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -27% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$788) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -4% → late -48% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$307 vs −$159 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$1,965

Realized+$1,470

Unrealized−$15

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses16 / 15

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Est. fees paid−$92

Open positions2

Markets (closed)31 / 36

History coverage6d

Avg bet$529

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown46%

Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 31 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	No	74¢	74¢	$1,480	$1,470	−$10 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	50¢	50¢	$500	$495	−$5 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	Jun 27	$97	−$97	-100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France?	Jun 27	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	Jun 27	$116	−$116	-100%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France?	Jun 27	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Jun 27	$108	−$108	-100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	Jun 27	$266	−$266	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 27	$541	−$541	-100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France?	Jun 27	$124	−$124	-100%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw?	Jun 27	$409	−$409	-100%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 27	$409	−$409	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$1,864	+$136	+7%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$299	+$186	+62%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$689	+$211	+31%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$259	+$141	+55%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$805	+$195	+24%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$788	+$412	+52%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$1,175	+$825	+70%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$314	+$131	+42%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw?	Jun 25	$28	−$27	-97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$505	+$237	+47%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5	Jun 24	$1,102	+$437	+40%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$271	+$129	+48%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$1,764	+$256	+14%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$169	−$168	-99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan?	Jun 23	$8	−$8	-97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	Jun 23	$15	−$15	-98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan?	Jun 23	$31	−$30	-98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$101	+$31	+31%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi	Jun 22	$1,014	+$921	+91%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5	Jun 22	$787	+$282	+36%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$1,910	+$379	+20%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	74¢	$1,492	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	50¢	$508	1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	76¢	$689	10h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	93¢	$1,864	10h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	61¢	$299	20h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	64¢	$259	21h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	65¢	$525	21h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	80¢	$805	21h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	65¢	$263	21h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France?	BUY Yes	11¢	$124	21h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	BUY Yes	19¢	$97	21h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France?	BUY Yes	10¢	$51	21h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France?	BUY Yes	3¢	$20	21h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	70¢	$314	41h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw?	BUY Yes	9¢	$28	2d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$108	2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?	BUY Yes	19¢	$116	2d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	58¢	$1,175	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	53¢	$541	2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	71¢	$1,102	2d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$409	3d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$409	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	BUY	67¢	$505	3d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	80¢	$169	3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	87¢	$1,240	3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? A	BUY	44¢	$203	3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	87¢	$524	3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	67¢	$271	3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	8¢	$8	3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	15¢	$15	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,965.00 · official $1,965.00 (match) · 64 history records