Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:04:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc20e…c6a1 other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$288 (-26%) realized −$284 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%13W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$334
7 days−$334
14 days−$475
30 days−$475
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$206
crypto 32% −$158
sports 16% −$96
world 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-47.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -38.8% -44.7% 31% 27% -50.8%
≤30d 43 -47.5% -52.5% 26% 23% -51.9%
≤90d 43 -47.5% -52.5% 26% 23% -51.9%
all 46 -41.5% -47.0% 28% 26% -49.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.0% 26% -49.3%
10% -52.1% 26% -54.2%
15% -56.7% 24% -58.6%
20% -61.0% 17% -62.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$21 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$284
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 33
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage133d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 27 $32 −$30 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $35 −$33 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $37 +$15 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $58 −$54 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$19 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$18 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $18 −$17 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $27 +$25 +92%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $14 +$25 +182%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $16 −$6 -40%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $21 −$20 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $61 +$39 +64%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $42 +$18 +42%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $11 −$9 -85%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 26 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $44 +$3 +8%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$23 +241%
Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 16? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 17? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 18? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $32 +$16 +51%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 −$6 -52%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $17 +$40 +234%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $23 +$7 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 26 $19 −$2 -10%
Will the United States win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Wint Feb 18 $10 +$7 +68%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 16 $9 +$7 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $58 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $27 3h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 91¢ $39 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 3h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 4h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 28¢ $16 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $60 11h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 63¢ $42 28h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 28h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $16 28h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 31h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $32 33h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $69 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.98 · official $45.98 (match) · 98 history records