Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:38:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc214…6a42 sports 79 markets active 3h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$180 (-5%) realized −$170 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%26W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days−$234
14 days−$201
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$62
other 26% −$141
world 2% −$77
crypto 1% −$31
finance 1% −$20
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -16.5% -24.4% 39% 39% -21.0%
≤30d 61 +2.5% -7.3% 43% 43% -5.5%
≤90d 66 -5.3% -14.3% 39% 39% -15.5%
all 66 -5.3% -14.3% 39% 39% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 39% -15.5%
10% -22.5% 39% -23.6%
15% -30.0% 39% -31.0%
20% -36.9% 36% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$41 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$320
Realized−$170
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses26 / 40
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions8
Markets (closed)66 / 79
History coverage102d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 74¢ 76¢ $75 $77 +$2 (+2%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 75¢ 73¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 48¢ $25 $37 +$12 (+49%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 57¢ 84¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+48%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 21¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $25 $12 −$12 (-50%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 3¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 +$136 +134%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $46 −$45 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $27 +$52 +197%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$53 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $32 −$32 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $51 +$47 +93%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $40 +$25 +62%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $305 −$300 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$51 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $13 +$46 +344%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $27 +$23 +83%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $23 −$22 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $33 +$16 +49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $64 +$36 +57%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $29 +$71 +248%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $40 +$21 +52%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $202 +$80 +40%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$97 +474%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $21 −$21 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-1 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $22 +$19 +87%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $20 +$63 +307%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $20 +$25 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 74¢ $76 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 75¢ $40 2h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 3h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $102 6h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 26¢ $51 8h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $46 13h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 21h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 21h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 33¢ $27 21h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND W BUY 11¢ $31 21h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY 21¢ $61 32h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 202 BUY 41¢ $41 47h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $32 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $15 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $15 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $51 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $51 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $305 3d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $31 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $40 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $101 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $31 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $26 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 18¢ $31 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $51 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $320.32 · official $319.52 (match) · 109 history records