Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:08:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc214…105d sports 593 markets active 2h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$17,838 (-9%) realized −$17,537 · open −$301
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%299W / 293L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$346per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$2,726est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$645
7 days−$2,334
14 days−$6,272
30 days−$10,008
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$19,084
crypto 9% +$100
other 7% −$1,003
finance 1% +$57
politics 1% −$298
weather 0% −$490
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -24.4% -31.6% 32% 32% -24.6%
≤30d 249 -18.6% -26.3% 41% 39% -16.9%
≤90d 489 -16.5% -24.5% 44% 42% -19.4%
all 592 -11.5% -19.9% 51% 44% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 44% -17.4%
10% -27.6% 36% -25.3%
15% -34.6% 29% -32.6%
20% -41.0% 21% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$199 vs −$273 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17,537
Unrealized−$301
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses299 / 293
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$2,726
Open positions1
Markets (closed)592 / 593
History coverage242d
Avg bet$346
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 592 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 74¢ 0¢ $301 $0 −$301 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 132 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $401 +$49 +12%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $153 +$305 +200%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $146 −$144 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $122 −$120 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $607 −$600 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $603 +$111 +18%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $49 −$48 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Zandschulp Jun 18 $38 +$11 +29%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $14 +$24 +165%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $64 −$45 -71%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $92 −$86 -94%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ame Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$26 +26%
Set 2 Winner: Atmane vs Medvedev Jun 17 $50 +$24 +48%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $131 +$69 +52%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $101 +$32 +32%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $48 −$36 -76%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$74 -72%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $25 −$24 -97%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $280 −$82 -29%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $75 +$269 +359%
Set 1 Winner: Humbert vs Cilic Jun 16 $51 −$9 -18%
Set 1 Winner: Rinderknech vs Medjedovic Jun 16 $51 −$12 -24%
Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs Diallo Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $102 +$163 +160%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $230 −$30 -13%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $11 −$10 -93%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$4 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $89 −$49 -55%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$30 -84%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$30 +74%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $28 +$19 +69%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$9 +201%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$21 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $122 −$120 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $151 −$148 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $474 −$254 -54%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $143 +$236 +165%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $50 +$21 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 80¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 63¢ $30 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 73¢ $172 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 99¢ $450 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 88¢ $401 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 99¢ $458 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 32¢ $153 5h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 47¢ $146 7h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 32¢ $122 19h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 63¢ $607 20h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $714 22h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 84¢ $603 22h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 55¢ $49 29h
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Zandschulp SELL Paul 99¢ $49 29h
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Zandschulp BUY Paul 76¢ $38 29h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $38 29h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 37¢ $14 31h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 26¢ $51 32h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 12¢ $19 34h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 41¢ $51 34h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 32¢ $13 35h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 10¢ $41 45h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 1¢ $3 45h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 14¢ $51 45h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ame BUY Amaru Gaming 7¢ $41 46h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 7¢ $10 46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 52¢ $128 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $102 2d
Set 2 Winner: Atmane vs Medvedev SELL Medvedev 100¢ $75 2d
Set 2 Winner: Atmane vs Medvedev BUY Medvedev 67¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.20 (match) · 1439 history records