Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:38:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc216…6e99 other 269 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$164 (-5%) realized −$122 · open −$42
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate65%172W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$175
sports 31% +$58
finance 11% −$31
crypto 1% −$50
tech 1% −$14
world 1% +$11
politics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 +4.5% -5.4% 67% 50% -28.9%
≤90d 26 -17.8% -25.6% 54% 31% -23.1%
all 265 -2.0% -11.3% 65% 56% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 56% -14.0%
10% -19.8% 42% -22.3%
15% -27.5% 29% -29.8%
20% -34.6% 19% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$122
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses172 / 93
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)265 / 269
History coverage152d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 265 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 38¢ $90 $51 −$39 (-43%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -98%
Philippines vs. Guam: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $11 +$1 +6%
Philippines vs. Guam: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $6 +$2 +27%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 03 $4 +$3 +69%
Cerebras IPO before 2027? May 03 $3 +$1 +20%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Will América de Cali win on 2026-04-19? Apr 26 $4 $0 +5%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? Apr 20 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 18 $6 −$6 -98%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 12AM ET Apr 18 $50 −$50 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals Apr 18 $53 +$3 +5%
Will Boyacá Chicó FC win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $40 +$5 +13%
Will CA Talleres win on 2026-04-13? Apr 16 $40 +$3 +7%
Will CA Sarmiento vs. Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata end in a draw? Apr 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-11? Apr 13 $56 +$2 +3%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $40 +$6 +16%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 11 $32 +$12 +38%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 08 $30 −$13 -45%
Glean IPO before 2027? Apr 08 $10 −$4 -38%
Discord IPO before 2027? Apr 08 $15 −$5 -33%
Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Mar 22 $32 −$32 -100%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 21 $20 +$3 +14%
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans Mar 21 $20 +$9 +44%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 21 $17 +$2 +13%
Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 21 $5 +$4 +74%
Applied Intuition IPO before 2027? Mar 21 $15 −$6 -41%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10? Mar 15 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $28 −$28 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Magic vs. Timberwolves Mar 10 $9 +$3 +28%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-07? Mar 10 $10 +$3 +30%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-07? Mar 10 $10 +$8 +82%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08? Mar 10 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $5 +$6 +122%
Will Charles Leclerc achieve the fastest lap in Practice 1 at the 2026 Mar 07 $10 +$16 +156%
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Mar 07 $50 −$50 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5? Mar 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Hornets vs. Celtics Mar 05 $5 $0 +5%
BNP Paribas Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Shuai Zhang Mar 05 $5 +$5 +100%
Thunder vs. Knicks Mar 05 $10 +$10 +104%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 05 $5 +$3 +67%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. UCLA Bruins Mar 04 $10 +$3 +33%
Pelicans vs. Lakers Mar 04 $20 +$4 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $18 17h
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 94¢ $11 17d
Philippines vs. Guam: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $5 17d
Philippines vs. Guam: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $5 17d
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $6 18d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 18d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 48d
Cerebras IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 48d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 34¢ $4 54d
Will América de Cali win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $4 61d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? SELL Yes 73¢ $4 61d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY No 48¢ $6 63d
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 12AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 63d
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals BUY San Francisco Giants 95¢ $44 63d
Will Boyacá Chicó FC win on 2026-04-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 63d
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals BUY San Francisco Giants 95¢ $9 63d
Will Boyacá Chicó FC win on 2026-04-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $40 63d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-16? BUY Yes 88¢ $40 64d
Will CA Sarmiento vs. Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $7 67d
Will CA Talleres win on 2026-04-13? BUY Yes 93¢ $40 67d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 68d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 97¢ $47 68d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 97¢ $9 68d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $40 70d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes $5 70d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 72¢ $22 73d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 13¢ $17 73d
Glean IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.00 · official $60.00 (match) · 668 history records