Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:09:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc21d…50c1 other 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$26 (-3%) realized −$25 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate48%20W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$30
sports 30% +$1
crypto 5% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +7.0% -3.2% 48% 36% -10.6%
≤30d 42 +7.0% -3.2% 48% 36% -10.6%
≤90d 42 +7.0% -3.2% 48% 36% -10.6%
all 42 +7.0% -3.2% 48% 36% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.2% 36% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -12.5% 26% -19.2%
15% -20.9% 26% -27.0%
20% -28.7% 21% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses20 / 22
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 58
History coverage5d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $32 $30 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 +$10 +48%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $5 $0 -8%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 $0 -1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $125 −$36 -29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 25 $5 +$10 +191%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 25 $5 +$15 +302%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $16 +$12 +76%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$5 -18%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$4 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -91%
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: R Jun 23 $25 −$9 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Valorant: 9z Team vs University War - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$2 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $12 +$26 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 +$3 +62%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $23 +$51 +216%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$7 -44%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $38 −$20 -52%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $18 +$8 +41%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 +$67 +165%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $36 +$6 +17%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $55 −$18 -32%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $5 $0 +5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $36 −$36 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $25 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 51¢ $5 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will United States win on 2026-07-01 BUY 4¢ $2 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 1¢ $1 5h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 57¢ $5 5h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 AND New Zeala BUY 26¢ $4 6h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $5 6h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $5 6h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $20 6h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $20 23h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 36¢ $45 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 57¢ $21 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- BUY 53¢ $12 33h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? AND Will Germany win on 2026-0 BUY 3¢ $11 33h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 61¢ $23 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.26 · official $33.17 · 116 history records