Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:50:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C2
0xc21d…87ba
other · 671 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$182 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$181 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$181
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses215 / 452
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)667 / 671
History coverage151d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%
Chart Positions 4 History 667 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026? No 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Valencia CF vs. Girona FC end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-04-05? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-03? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Leeds United FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-05-17? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Egypt? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 2 - 1 Athletic Club? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Levante UD vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-04-06? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Real Madrid CF 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-12? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-05-02? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Club Bolívar vs. Fluminense FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Senegal? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-09? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +158%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 +$20 +982%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 Nigeria? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Bolivia 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Nigeria? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Venezuela? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 2 Chile? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Russia 2 - 0 Trinidad and Tobago? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Indonesia 2 - 1 Mozambique? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Indonesia 2 - 0 Mozambique? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Peru 1 - 3 Spain? Jun 09 $1 +$11 +1115%
Exact Score: Peru 3 - 2 Spain? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Peru 0 - 3 Spain? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +78%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Colombia? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 1 Slovenia? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Greece 2 - 2 Italy? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Kosovo 1 - 0 Andorra? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Egypt? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Venezuela 2 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Chile? Jun 06 $1 +$16 +1521%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Valencia CF 1 - 0 FC Barcelona? May 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 2 - 1 Athletic Club? May 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $4 +$3 +67%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 +$2 +89%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5 May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
New York Red Bulls vs. New York City FC: Both Teams to Score May 17 $2 +$1 +50%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $2 +$2 +84%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% −$59
crypto 42% −$100
sports 9% −$67
world 3% +$16
culture 0% +$30
politics 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 27h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 32h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 41h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 42h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 Nigeria? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Bolivia 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Costa Rica? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Nigeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Venezuela? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: DR Congo 0 - 2 Chile? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Russia 2 - 0 Trinidad and Tobago? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Indonesia 2 - 1 Mozambique? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Indonesia 2 - 0 Mozambique? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Peru 1 - 3 Spain? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 4d
Exact Score: Peru 3 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Peru 0 - 3 Spain? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Peru 1 - 3 Spain? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Peru 0 - 3 Spain? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 1 Slovenia? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Greece 2 - 2 Italy? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Kosovo 1 - 0 Andorra? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 6d
Exact Score: Venezuela 2 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +74.2% +57.6% 20% 20% +77.2%
≤30d 48 +5.1% -4.9% 19% 19% -14.6%
≤90d 350 -25.2% -32.4% 24% 24% -31.5%
all 667 -12.5% -20.9% 32% 31% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 31% -14.1%
10% -28.4% 30% -22.3%
15% -35.4% 28% -29.8%
20% -41.7% 25% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.30 · official $5.30 (match) · 1414 history records