Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:27:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C2
0xc21e…94b2
sports · 1225 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
−$93 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$97 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Net worth$34
Realized−$97
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses922 / 298
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1220 / 1225
History coverage269d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 3 History 1220 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$26
14 days+$3
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Ecuador 91¢ 90¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during the Brian Kilmeade Show on November 21? Yes 54¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-21? Yes 80¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova Amanda Anisimova 82¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Nuggets vs. Spurs Spurs 82¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Yes 31¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Celtics vs. Trail Blazers Celtics 69¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Meavedron vs EXILE esports (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters Playoffs Meavedron 72¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Rayo Vallecano win on 2025-11-09? Yes 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 22¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-08? Yes 51¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. 76ers Trail Blazers 75¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Nets vs. 76ers 76ers 79¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Bulls Rockets 77¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-23? Yes 73¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 29? Yes 93¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Sweden win on 2025-11-18? Yes 58¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-02-21? Yes 54¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Pixelworks (PXLW) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 85¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Clippers 69¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17? Yes 81¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on May 31? Yes 98¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-14? Yes 74¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$14 +67%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$4 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +48%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $7 +$3 +41%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $9 $0 +1%
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $15 −$1 -9%
LoL: RED Canids vs Leviatan Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Am Jun 09 $20 +$3 +13%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $15 +$5 +32%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $15 +$6 +38%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs 1WIN (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Play Jun 07 $20 +$1 +6%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 06 $15 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $10 +$1 +13%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 05 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 05 $20 −$9 -46%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 05 $10 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30? Jun 05 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? Jun 05 $6 $0 +5%
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the re Jun 05 $7 $0 +1%
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central Jun 05 $6 $0 -1%
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? Jun 05 $4 $0 -1%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $2 $0 -22%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $4 −$1 -17%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: S Jun 04 $34 +$3 +10%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 04 $15 +$4 +27%
Will Broadcom (AVGO) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 04 $20 +$1 +3%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Jun 04 $20 +$3 +17%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 04 $25 +$4 +17%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump say "Frog" in May? Jun 02 $5 $0 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 02 $6 +$1 +24%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $10 +$1 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 02 $10 +$2 +16%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann Jun 02 $15 +$2 +12%
Will Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 02 $19 +$2 +9%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs L.820 (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Stage Jun 01 $13 −$13 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $15 +$1 +8%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $15 +$4 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 30? May 31 $10 +$2 +22%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $10 +$2 +24%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys May 30 $16 +$3 +20%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina May 30 $11 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on May 31? May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 45% −$22
other 29% −$48
finance 11% −$51
crypto 4% −$52
world 3% +$77
tech 3% +$9
weather 2% −$5
politics 2% −$2
economics 1% +$2
culture 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 72¢ $14 26m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $15 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 91¢ $15 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY 68¢ $15 5h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY 59¢ $20 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $15 29h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $10 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $7 47h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $5 47h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 47h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $7 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $9 3d
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? SELL Yes 85¢ $14 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 5d
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 92¢ $15 7d
LoL: RED Canids vs Leviatan Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Am BUY RED Canids 88¢ $20 7d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 72¢ $15 7d
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs BUY Team Secret Whales 75¢ $15 7d
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs 1WIN (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Play BUY Johnny Speeds 94¢ $20 8d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs BUY Team Heretics Academy 84¢ $15 9d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 88¢ $10 9d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 9d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 95¢ $18 9d
Will Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) beat quarterly earnings? SELL Yes 54¢ $11 9d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $10 9d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30? SELL Yes 97¢ $10 9d
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? SELL Yes 88¢ $6 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +12.8% +2.0% 80% 67% +2.9%
≤30d 130 -2.8% -12.1% 79% 55% -12.0%
≤90d 596 +3.0% -6.8% 84% 58% -7.8%
all 1220 -1.0% -10.4% 76% 54% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 54% -10.4%
10% -19.0% 32% -18.9%
15% -26.8% 15% -26.8%
20% -34.0% 9% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.43 · official $63.43 · 2532 history records