Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:24:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C2
0xc21e…e6d3
other · 53 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$18,286 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$18,242 · open −$45
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$151
Realized−$18,242
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage26d
Avg bet$3,162
Trades / day130.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%
Chart Positions 1 History 52 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$71
7 days−$1,298
14 days−$53,327
30 days−$18,242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $195 $151 −$45 (-23%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $129 $0 −$129 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $684 $0 −$684 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $267 $0 −$267 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $322 +$44 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $141 +$21 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $82 +$7 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $19 +$12 +63%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $13 +$6 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $35 −$1 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $35 −$22 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1,506 −$274 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $114 −$79 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $135 −$129 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $3,140 −$871 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $143 −$13 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $321 −$251 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $233 +$36 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $400 −$240 -60%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 03 $16,680 −$11,974 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $807 −$807 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $751 −$6 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $716 −$684 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $331 +$476 +144%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $2,056 −$1,813 -88%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $3,033 −$1,940 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $3,185 −$3,140 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $14,823 −$14,823 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 30 $694 −$246 -36%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 29 $6,893 −$4,621 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 29 $1,069 −$1,069 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 29 $10,927 −$10,927 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $12,347 +$23,945 +194%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $343 +$392 +114%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $125 −$118 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $146 −$138 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $140 +$74 +53%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $6,888 +$5,299 +77%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $9,298 +$210 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $1,273 −$248 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $2,002 −$480 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $2,753 −$2,520 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $1,992 −$1,105 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $2,220 −$1,748 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 23 $2,016 −$1,030 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 22 $11,359 −$11,359 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $12,750 +$15,045 +118%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $10,617 +$1,445 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $5,869 +$358 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $6,725 −$6,725 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $5,757 +$8,663 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$18,286
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $204 7m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $206 9m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $160 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $160 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $162 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $162 19h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $103 41h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $38 44h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $23 47h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 47h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 47h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 47h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $11 47h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $28 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $9 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $6 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $7 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $31 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $31 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $11 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $6 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $19 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -17.3% -25.1% 46% 31% -32.1%
≤30d 52 -15.6% -23.7% 38% 29% -19.3%
≤90d 52 -15.6% -23.7% 38% 29% -19.3%
all 52 -15.6% -23.7% 38% 29% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover130.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.7% 29% -19.3%
10% -31.0% 21% -27.1%
15% ← realistic here -37.6% 21% -34.1%
20% -43.8% 19% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.79 · official $150.79 (match) · 3500 history records