Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:47:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C2
0xc21e…0215
politics · 49 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$6,569 -158%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11,247 · open +$5,290
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$94,521
Realized−$11,247
Unrealized+$5,290
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses15 / 126
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions167
Markets (closed)141 / 49
Avg bet$85
Trades / day3497.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 167 History 141 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11,247
7 days−$11,247
14 days−$11,247
30 days−$11,247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5,369 $5,816 +$447 (+8%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5,073 $5,496 +$423 (+8%)
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4,739 $4,574 −$165 (-3%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3,857 $4,132 +$275 (+7%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3,524 $3,818 +$294 (+8%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3,133 $3,387 +$254 (+8%)
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3,096 $3,354 +$258 (+8%)
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3,024 $3,276 +$252 (+8%)
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,142 $2,295 +$153 (+7%)
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,031 $2,193 +$162 (+8%)
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,027 $2,192 +$165 (+8%)
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,018 $2,183 +$165 (+8%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,930 $2,065 +$135 (+7%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,143 $1,990 −$153 (-7%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,793 $1,921 +$128 (+7%)
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,747 $1,896 +$149 (+9%)
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,730 $1,874 +$144 (+8%)
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,631 $1,766 +$136 (+8%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,597 $1,711 +$114 (+7%)
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,542 $1,670 +$128 (+8%)
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,538 $1,666 +$128 (+8%)
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,504 $1,629 +$125 (+8%)
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,529 $1,597 +$67 (+4%)
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,471 $1,594 +$123 (+8%)
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,383 $1,498 +$115 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian pre Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $8 −$9,219 -108460%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$359 -7554%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$103 +2170%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $30 −$32 -108%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$242 -5100%
Will Emma Raducanu win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 12 $7 −$11 -168%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $18 −$117 -645%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$205 -4320%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$13 -739%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$319 -6704%
Will Phil Mickelson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$110 -6364%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$13 -769%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$349 -7348%
Will West Ham finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leag Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ali Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -7130%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$10 -201%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$165 -3465%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$13 -769%
Will Bianca Andreescu win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 12 $3 −$11 -339%
Will Tesla reach $405 in April? Jun 12 $159 −$159 -100%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$137 -2890%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$5 -147%
Will Raphael Collignon win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$42 -884%
Will Davis Thompson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Microsoft dip to $330 in April? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $15 −$30 -200%
Will Jake Knapp win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Jun 12 $1 +$18 +1494%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidenti Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$4 -115%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Jun 12 $7 −$12 -160%
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 3, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$13 -769%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$13 -260%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$7 -131%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$11 -645%
Will Mohammad Pakpour be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -7130%
Will Taylor Pendrith win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$12 -674%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$255 -5361%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$34 -724%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$262 -5507%
Will Bukayo Saka be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Jun 12 $9 −$14 -148%
Will Microsoft dip to $300 in April? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 92% +$3,461
politics 7% +$3,299
economics 0% +$430
tech 0% +$3
world 0% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 0m
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 0m
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 0m
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1m
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6m
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8m
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9m
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11m
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11m
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11m
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11m
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12m
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12m
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 13m
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14m
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14m
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15m
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15m
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16m
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17m
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 19m
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 20m
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 21m
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23m
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+67.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 +84.6% +67.0% 11% 11% +26.9%
≤30d 141 +84.6% +67.0% 11% 11% +26.9%
≤90d 141 +84.6% +67.0% 11% 11% +26.9%
all 141 +84.6% +67.0% 11% 11% +26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3497.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +67.0% 11% +26.9%
10% ← realistic here +51.1% 11% +14.8%
15% +36.5% 11% +3.7%
20% +23.1% 11% -6.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94,521.42 · official $94,521.42 (match) · 3500 history records