Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:22:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc220…e3d1 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-5%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip
Net edge-84%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%1W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day28.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$27
other 37% −$33
world 10% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-81.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -79.1% -81.1% 9% 9% -13.2%
≤30d 11 -79.1% -81.1% 9% 9% -13.2%
≤90d 11 -79.1% -81.1% 9% 9% -13.2%
all 11 -79.1% -81.1% 9% 9% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -81.1% 9% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -82.9% 9% -21.5%
15% -84.6% 9% -29.1%
20% -86.1% 9% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -79% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$6 · ×7.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions10
Markets (closed)11 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $76 +$46 +60%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $16 −$7 -46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$6 -30%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 12h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 12h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 12h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 12h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 12h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $112 12h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $19 12h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 12h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 12h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 12h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 12h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 12h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 32¢ $7 12h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 12h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 12h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $8 12h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 12h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 12h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 12h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $30 13h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 23¢ $3 14h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 30h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.79 · official $49.79 (match) · 37 history records