Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:38:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc221…1ed3 other 554 markets active 0h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$254 (-0%) realized −$206 · open −$48
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate79%428W / 117L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$368now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$129
7 days−$167
14 days−$408
30 days−$400
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$116
crypto 13% +$4
sports 2% −$452
politics 2% −$14
tech 1% +$4
culture 1% −$3
weather 0% +$9
world 0% −$23
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -13.9% -22.1% 45% 41% -16.0%
≤30d 112 -16.5% -24.4% 51% 30% -20.4%
≤90d 234 -5.3% -14.3% 75% 18% -10.7%
all 545 -1.9% -11.3% 79% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 8% -9.7%
10% -19.8% 5% -18.4%
15% -27.5% 4% -26.3%
20% -34.6% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$368
Realized−$206
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses428 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions9
Markets (closed)545 / 554
History coverage194d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 545 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Boston Red Sox 55¢ 70¢ $47 $61 +$13 (+28%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $50 $51 +$2 (+3%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 92¢ 94¢ $48 $50 +$1 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $48 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 24¢ $50 $26 −$24 (-48%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Minnesota Twins 69¢ 14¢ $48 $9 −$39 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $48 +$5 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $49 +$7 +15%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $49 +$17 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $48 +$34 +69%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt Jun 20 $48 +$39 +82%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $98 −$36 -36%
ITF Tauste: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Ru Xi Wu Jun 19 $48 +$34 +69%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $48 +$72 +151%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez Jun 19 $49 $0 +1%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $50 +$4 +9%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $50 +$19 +38%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $79 −$54 -69%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +56%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $30 −$11 -38%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $49 +$59 +121%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $100 −$41 -41%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $29 +$12 +40%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $50 +$38 +75%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$14 +146%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$11 -62%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $32 −$29 -92%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 +$57 +114%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $32 +$35 +110%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $43 +$31 +72%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 −$22 -43%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$58 +58%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 $0 -5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $62 +$11 +18%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $44 +$17 +40%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $49 +$15 +31%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $16 +$12 +79%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$17 +177%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $70 −$8 -12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 61¢ $1 10m
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 56¢ $39 13m
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 55¢ $40 14m
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 69¢ $49 22m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 92¢ $49 39m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 42m
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Minnesota Twins 73¢ $4 46m
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 69¢ $3 47m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $48 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 55¢ $48 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 82¢ $48 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 90¢ $48 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 84¢ $49 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $65 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 86¢ $49 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $49 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $53 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $49 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 15¢ $3 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $0 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $0 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $0 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $0 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $2 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $0 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $0 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $0 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $0 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $367.55 · official $367.55 (match) · 1458 history records