Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:06:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc221…dbef other 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 622d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4,455 (+2%) realized +$4,411 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate86%98W / 16L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$2,051per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$7,438now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$19
14 days+$273
30 days+$341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$3,582
politics 10% +$1,066
sports 7% +$131
crypto 6% +$38
world 2% −$358
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.9% -6.9% 86% 14% -9.5%
≤30d 39 +2.1% -7.6% 92% 10% -9.4%
≤90d 70 +3.0% -6.8% 93% 13% -8.3%
all 114 -1.8% -11.2% 86% 15% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 15% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 10% -16.8%
15% -27.4% 7% -24.8%
20% -34.5% 4% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$999) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$67 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.73 per $1 lost it wins $5.73
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

622d coverage
Net worth$7,438
Realized+$4,411
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses98 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions15
Markets (closed)114 / 132
History coverage622d
Avg bet$2,051
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will cobraze have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 No 100¢ 100¢ $1,024 $1,028 +$4 (+0%)
Will Jame have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 No 100¢ 100¢ $913 $916 +$3 (+0%)
Will meyern have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 No 100¢ 100¢ $880 $882 +$2 (+0%)
Will insani have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 No 100¢ 100¢ $698 $700 +$3 (+0%)
Will maxxkor have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 No 99¢ 100¢ $571 $574 +$3 (+1%)
Will NiKo have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 No 100¢ 100¢ $561 $563 +$2 (+0%)
Will dziugss have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 No 99¢ 100¢ $481 $484 +$3 (+1%)
Will yxngstxr have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 No 99¢ 100¢ $471 $474 +$3 (+1%)
Will ZywOo have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 No 99¢ 100¢ $453 $455 +$2 (+0%)
Will gr1ks have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 No 99¢ 100¢ $435 $439 +$3 (+1%)
Will donk have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 No 98¢ 100¢ $413 $420 +$7 (+2%)
Will sh1ro have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 No 99¢ 100¢ $321 $324 +$3 (+1%)
Will Valve remove Mirage from the Map Pool? No 95¢ 98¢ $76 $78 +$3 (+3%)
Will Valve remove Dust 2 from the Map Pool? No 94¢ 99¢ $47 $50 +$3 (+6%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 21 $95,000 $0 +0%
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $167 +$1 +1%
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $1,299 +$2 +0%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $2,854 +$4 +0%
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $6,023 +$7 +0%
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $85 +$5 +6%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +14%
Will PARIVISION reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $6,278 +$6 +0%
Will B8 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $340 +$11 +3%
Will BetBoom qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 12 $8 +$5 +62%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $21 +$9 +42%
Will BIG qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 09 $3,707 +$43 +1%
Will TYLOO qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 09 $2,068 +$3 +0%
Will TYLOO win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $18,945 +$19 +0%
Will paiN qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 09 $3,152 +$7 +0%
Will M80 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 09 $914 +$7 +1%
Will G2 qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will MIBR qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 08 $98 +$7 +8%
Will MIBR qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $213 +$61 +29%
Will MIBR win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $1,496 +$4 +0%
Will Astralis qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 08 $472 +$1 +0%
Will Astralis reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $3,213 +$29 +1%
Will GamerLegion qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 07 $249 +$4 +2%
Will Spirit qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $723 +$3 +0%
Will GamerLegion reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $4,947 +$31 +1%
Will FlyQuest win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $999 +$1 +0%
Will FlyQuest qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 07 $695 +$2 +0%
Will 9z qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $8,013 $0 +0%
Will NRG qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 06 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Team Liquid qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 05 $572 +$3 +1%
Will Lynn Vision qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 05 $1,039 +$5 +0%
Will Sharks qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 04 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Thunder downunder qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 04 $504 +$4 +1%
Will HEROIC win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $999 +$1 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $16,514 +$38 +0%
Will Valve add first CS2 operation by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $545 +$12 +2%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 18 $6 +$4 +82%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $25 $0 +1%
Will Poland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $110 $0 +0%
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $120 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 17 $4 +$1 +37%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner May 17 $7 +$3 +43%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026? May 01 $27,601 +$2,709 +10%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 15? Apr 07 $990 +$4 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 07 $1,485 +$6 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will sh1ro have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 BUY No 100¢ $10 37m
Will sh1ro have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 BUY No 100¢ $96 1h
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 17h
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $308 18h
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 18h
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 19h
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 19h
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $71 19h
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $48 19h
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $145 19h
Will sh1ro have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 BUY No 100¢ $145 19h
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 19h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 19h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 19h
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $564 19h
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 19h
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $55 19h
Will sh1ro have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 BUY No 96¢ $70 19h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 19h
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $35 19h
Will Valve remove Mirage from the Map Pool? BUY No 98¢ $29 20h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 22h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 22h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 22h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 23h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,885 24h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,389 24h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,553 24h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 24h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,437.95 · official $7,437.99 (match) · 868 history records