Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:02:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C2 0xc225…03ce politics 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%11W / 124L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$22
politics 33% −$19
sports 10% +$15
world 2% −$1
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 96 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 135 -1.0% -10.4% 8% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 5% -9.6%
10% -19.0% 3% -18.2%
15% -26.8% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×7.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses11 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)135 / 137
History coverage136d
Avg bet$316
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $47 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $43 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $28 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $199 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $997 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $217 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $225 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $200 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $241 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $279 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $242 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $205 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $218 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $289 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $218 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $754 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $938 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $273 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $965 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $284 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $759 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $285 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $278 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $259 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $215 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $489 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $250 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 3d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 3d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 4d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 4d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 5d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 5d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $29 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $29 7d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 7d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 8d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 8d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 8d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $2 12d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $6 12d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $6 12d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $6 12d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $8 12d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $29 12d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $34 13d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $34 13d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 16d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 16d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 19d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 19d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $47 19d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $47 20d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 20d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.00 · official $79.00 (match) · 456 history records