Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:57:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C2 0xc228…7a7d sports 140 markets active 0h ago coverage 237d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$849 (+22%) realized +$919 · open −$70
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%76W / 58L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$96
14 days+$336
30 days+$275
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$820
other 6% −$25
finance 3% +$2
economics 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +182.5% +155.6% 100% 100% +85.1%
≤30d 12 +129.5% +107.7% 75% 75% +49.7%
≤90d 34 +55.6% +40.8% 65% 65% +9.4%
all 134 +27.1% +15.0% 57% 56% +15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.0% 56% +15.4%
10% +4.0% 53% +4.3%
15% -6.0% 51% -5.7%
20% -15.3% 48% -15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$21 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$919
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses76 / 58
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions5
Markets (closed)134 / 140
History coverage237d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 53¢ 16¢ $74 $22 −$52 (-71%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 57¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $25 +$15 +59%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $6 +$24 +394%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 +$58 +95%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $113 +$87 +77%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 +$10 +28%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $17 +$143 +828%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $15 +$25 +158%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $11 +$19 +165%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 02 $17 −$16 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $41 −$40 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $59 −$58 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $20 +$10 +50%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $20 +$23 +114%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 21 $51 +$8 +15%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $101 +$46 +46%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $393 −$240 -61%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $25 +$75 +307%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $24 +$27 +114%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $28 +$22 +76%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $100 +$149 +149%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 30 $34 −$34 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Apr 28 $27 +$22 +83%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $20 −$20 -99%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $76 −$76 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 27 $29 −$28 -98%
Spread: Celtics (-11.5) Apr 27 $26 −$26 -99%
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) Apr 27 $52 −$51 -99%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Apr 27 $498 +$99 +20%
Hawks vs. Spurs Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Apr 10 $13 +$7 +54%
Hornets vs. Hawks Apr 10 $18 +$12 +67%
Nets vs. Raptors Apr 10 $26 +$14 +56%
Spurs vs. Suns Apr 10 $21 +$29 +136%
Kings vs. Grizzlies Nov 24 $12 +$8 +72%
76ers vs. Bucks Nov 24 $11 +$9 +89%
Spread: Pistons (-5.5) Nov 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Magic (-14.5) Nov 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Warriors vs. Spurs Nov 21 $17 −$17 -100%
76ers vs. Pistons Nov 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-3.5) Nov 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5) Nov 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Kings vs. Timberwolves Nov 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets Nov 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Heat vs. Knicks Nov 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Lakers vs. Bucks Nov 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Nov 21 $29 +$21 +72%
Spread: Suns (-5.5) Nov 14 $9 +$11 +133%
Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5) Nov 14 $10 +$10 +92%
Pacers vs. Suns Nov 14 $18 +$12 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 5m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 53¢ $21 29m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 57¢ $17 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $41 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $27 4h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 63¢ $25 4h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 20¢ $3 4h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 20¢ $3 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: Algeria (-1.5) AND Spread: France BUY $10 41h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 40¢ $39 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $6 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 18¢ $11 12d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 38¢ $15 21d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $11 21d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 55¢ $17 21d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $59 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 66¢ $20 29d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 47¢ $20 33d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 46¢ $20 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.96 · official $71.70 · 422 history records