Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:56:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

C2 0xc229…1b74 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$1,317 (+21%) realized +$1,637 · open −$320

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown31%max

Avg bet$1,052per market

Trades / day5.6pace

Fees−$32est.

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$2,770now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-23.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-15.7%	-23.7%	50%	50%	+36.9%
≤30d	4	-15.7%	-23.7%	50%	50%	+36.9%
≤90d	4	-15.7%	-23.7%	50%	50%	+36.9%
all	4	-15.7%	-23.7%	50%	50%	+36.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.6 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-23.7%	50%	+36.9%
10%	-31.0%	50%	+23.8%
15%	-37.7%	50%	+11.8%
20%	-43.8%	50%	+0.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +51% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -16% · $-wt +51% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$1,051 vs −$250 · ×4.2 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.2 per $1 lost it wins $4.2

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$2,770

Realized+$1,637

Unrealized−$320

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$32

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage2d

Avg bet$1,052

Trades / day5.6

Drawdown31%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	1¢	$1,640	$1,870	+$230 (+14%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$1,450	$900	−$550 (-38%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$2,382	+$1,969	+83%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$243	+$132	+55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$302	−$300	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$202	−$200	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$494	2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$371	2h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$412	2h
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	54¢	$2,382	12h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$247	15h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	64¢	$243	35h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	82¢	$302	35h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$202	35h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$824	45h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$834	45h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,770.00 · official $2,770.00 (match) · 14 history records