Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:07:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc229…eca8 crypto 275 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (167 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,706 (+12%) realized +$1,706 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%141W / 134L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day166.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$1,547
other 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (167 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 275 +8.3% -2.0% 51% 45% +0.4%
≤30d 275 +8.3% -2.0% 51% 45% +0.4%
≤90d 275 +8.3% -2.0% 51% 45% +0.4%
all 275 +8.3% -2.0% 51% 45% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover166.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.0% 45% +0.4%
10% ← realistic here -11.4% 42% -9.2%
15% -19.9% 40% -18.0%
20% -27.8% 37% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$33 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,706
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses141 / 134
Open positions0
Markets (closed)275 / 275
History coverage6d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day166.7
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 275 Trades
no open positions (81 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $93 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 25 $46 +$50 +108%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 25 $46 +$1 +3%
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals Jun 25 $76 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 24 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $46 +$54 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 24 $134 +$44 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 24 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $29 +$19 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 24 $90 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $45 +$35 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $46 +$46 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 24 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 24 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $46 +$54 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $47 +$53 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 24 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $44 +$56 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $139 +$161 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $37 −$7 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $115 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $48 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $190 +$85 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $92 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $62 +$38 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $180 −$78 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $86 +$14 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $87 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $129 +$119 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $41 +$54 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $24 +$28 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $46 +$47 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $231 +$46 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $33 +$29 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $157 +$24 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $45 +$55 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $224 +$65 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $46 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $47 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $46 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $46 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $76 2h
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY No 97¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $46 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $48 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $34 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $45 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $46 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1150 history records