Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:26:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc22b…352c crypto 1705 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7,837 (+73%) realized +$7,871 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate92%1554W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day78.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 54% −$23
crypto 46% −$57
other 0% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 220 -3.4% -12.6% 93% 7% -12.2%
≤30d 1698 -0.8% -10.2% 92% 22% -10.2%
≤90d 1698 -0.8% -10.2% 92% 22% -10.2%
all 1698 -0.8% -10.2% 92% 22% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 22% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 6% -18.8%
15% -26.7% 1% -26.6%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized+$7,871
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1554 / 144
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1698 / 1705
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day78.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1698 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 83¢ $50 $83 +$33 (+67%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 17¢ $50 $17 −$33 (-67%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 17? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 17? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 17? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Yes 84¢ 48¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 22m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 99¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.36 · official $150.56 (match) · 3500 history records