Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:01:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C2 0xc22c…da61 crypto 434 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$304 (-8%) realized −$298 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%217W / 215L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$176
14 days−$377
30 days−$419
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$256
crypto 24% −$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -11.1% -19.6% 46% 45% -16.4%
≤30d 432 -8.4% -17.1% 50% 48% -20.3%
≤90d 432 -8.4% -17.1% 50% 48% -20.3%
all 432 -8.4% -17.1% 50% 48% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 48% -20.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 45% -28.0%
15% -32.3% 41% -34.9%
20% -38.9% 40% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$298
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses217 / 215
Open positions2
Markets (closed)432 / 434
History coverage27d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 432 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 130 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $243 −$185 -76%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $144 −$31 -22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $301 +$36 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $212 +$132 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$3 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$16 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -89%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $305 +$42 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +39%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$17 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$7 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $112 −$32 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$1 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$11 +109%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $151 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 16¢ $58 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $232 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $113 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 20h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 20h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $41 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $301 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $2 28h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.93 · official $148.93 (match) · 817 history records