Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:45:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc232…b3d2 other 254 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 244L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$29
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$50
sports 24% −$20
politics 7% −$6
economics 6% −$5
culture 6% −$7
crypto 5% −$5
world 3% −$2
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 254 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)254 / 254
History coverage138d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 254 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $234 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $304 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $170 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $285 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $653 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $176 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $179 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $325 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $146 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $176 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $254 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $323 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $154 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $344 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $128 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $107 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $756 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $417 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $219 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $343 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $73 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 11 $248 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $737 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $349 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $599 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $830 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $705 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $260 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $346 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 06 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $62 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $238 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $123 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 04 $448 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $306 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 47m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 7h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 9h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 9h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 10h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 13h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 15h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $55 22h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $55 24h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 25h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 26h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 29h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 31h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $55 32h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $55 34h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 34h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 36h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 38h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 39h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 41h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 42h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 44h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 45h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1463 history records