Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:41:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C2 0xc239…ba15 politics 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-0%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$9
politics 33% −$9
sports 14% −$29
crypto 6% −$2
tech 3% −$1
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 82 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 118 -2.6% -11.8% 7% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 5% -9.7%
10% -20.3% 3% -18.4%
15% -28.0% 3% -26.3%
20% -35.0% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 110
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage125d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $17 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $26 $0 -0%
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $32 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $26 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $211 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $31 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $167 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $196 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $152 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $187 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $163 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $143 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $161 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $808 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $194 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $194 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $161 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $176 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $139 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $146 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $142 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $165 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $187 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $351 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $173 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 13 $188 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 12 $202 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 09 $203 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $205 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $200 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 18 $197 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $152 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $201 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $157 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $175 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $181 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $174 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $205 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 5d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 5d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 8d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $28 8d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $28 8d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $20 10d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $20 10d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 10d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 11d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 13d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 13d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 14d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 14d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 15d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 15d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 16d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 17d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 17d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 19d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 19d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 19d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 19d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 20d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 20d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 21d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $167 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.98 · official $33.98 (match) · 327 history records